May 21, 2026
Disappearing Ice on Lake Huron & Georgian Bay
By John Anderson, 2026
INTRODUCTION
Not long ago, winter in Grey County arrived like clockwork. Each December, cold air settled in, snow piled up, and the great inland seas of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay began to freeze. By mid-winter, the bays were solid and shimmering — a frozen highway connecting people, communities, and traditions.
Those winters are now mostly gone, and with them, a way of life that had shaped our region for generations. Families once counted on steady cold for skating, ice fishing, skiing, and even crossing the ice to visit friends and relatives.
The rhythm of the season was dependable — until the climate began to shift.
Figure 1. Historic image of ice fishing on the Great Lakes. (Axios.com)
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM
Lake Huron and Georgian Bay together form the second-largest surface area in the Great Lakes system (Figure 2). The total surface area is estimated at 59,570 square kilometers.
The Great Lakes system plays an important role in moderating our climate and can play a big role in our local weather.
One example is lake-effect snow that creates what is known as The Snowbelt – those lands lying downwind of the Great Lakes that can get a lot of snow.
Figure 2: Satellite image of the Great Lakes system. Water appears as black through to turquoise while lake ice and snow are white. (NOAA Archives)
Lake Huron and Georgian Bay have lost roughly one-third of their maximum ice cover since 1973 — about half a percent every year.
OBSERVING ICE
Lake-wide daily observations of ice cover began in 1973 using satellites and has continued since then. These observations allow scientists to monitor and measure the formation, extent and duration of lake ice each year.
Ice typically begins to form in mid-November, and increases rapidly to a maximum extent by late February into early March (Figure 3). The average peak ice cover is about 50% of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Following the peak, ice cover rapidly declines through April and is gone by mid-May.
Individual years vary a lot, a pattern that turns out to be meaningful over decades of observation.
Figure 3: Daily ice cover on Lake Huron and Georgian Bay from 1973 to 2025 (grey lines). The long-term average (red line) and the year 2026 (black line) are highlighted for reference. (Graph from NOAA)
MAXIMUM ICE INDEX
Scientists use the peak ice each year – expressed as a percentage of the lake’s total surface area – as a simple index of that winter’s ice conditions.
Results show a steady annual decline in ice extent from 1973 to 2025 (Figure 4). Based on the trend in the data, a linear model estimates that the average maximum ice cover in 1970 was 77%. By 2025, the average ice cover had declined to 52%; a steady decline over the past five-plus decades, roughly one-third less ice.
Figure 4: Maximum ice extent (%) measured each year from 1973 to 2025 (yellow stars). A linear regression model fit to the data (dashed line) estimates the rate of decline in ice cover over the last 60 years.
The danger isn’t just less ice — it’s unpredictable ice. Year-to-year variability in lake ice has nearly doubled since the 1970s.
YEAR-TO-YEAR DIFFERENCES
Ice cover varied a lot from one year to the next. Variability measured over five-year periods showed a steady increase over this fifty-three-year period. In the 1970s variability averaged 24% but by the 2020s it had increased to 47% – nearly doubling (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Five-year ice variability (blue circles) in the maximum ice extent, from 1973 to 2025. The dashed line is a linear regression model fit to the data showing the rate of increase in ice variability since 1970.
Our winters are getting warmer and this means more than just less ice.
CLIMATE CHANGE
The declining lake ice combined with increasing variability in year-to-year ice cover are direct measures of climate change in our region. They are the result of increasing energy and turbulence in our climate system — what scientists call climate chaos or more simply wild weather.
Our winters are getting warmer, and this warming means more than just thinner ice. It also means:
- More open water in winter leading to higher evaporation
- More moisture in the air bringing heavier snowfalls when it does get cold
- Stronger winter winds damaging shorelines as they blow over open water
- Faster swings in lake levels disrupting shoreline habitats and properties
CLIMATE CHAOS
The increasing variability in ice cover is a measure of increasingly chaotic behaviour in our weather. Scientists understand that as we put more energy into a physical system there is more disorder and less predictability. Climate chaos makes winter conditions harder to predict and planning more difficult; resulting in more surprises.
Think of a pot of water on a stove: at a low simmer the surface is calm and predictable; as heat increases the water becomes increasingly turbulent and chaotic. The same principle applies to our climate system – the more heat we put into the atmosphere the more chaotic our weather becomes.
Winters of dependable ice cover are now mostly gone — and with them, a way of life that shaped our region for generations.
ADAPTING TO THE NEW WINTER
For many of us, there is a sense of loss — of dependable winters, of the simple joy of skating outdoors, skiing through a silent winter landscape, drilling a hole and lowering a fishing line. We are losing the connection between us and the frozen lakes that once defined life here.
Adaptation is a community-wide necessity. As dependable ice cover disappears, Grey Bruce residents will need to find new winter traditions to share. People living here must also prepare for greater variability in ice cover and, eventually, for ice-free winters.
Many people and organizations are adapting to these new conditions. We invite you to explore their stories in our Grey Roots Museum exhibit, Local Stories: Changing Weather, part of the Wild Weather exhibition which runs from May 16, 2026 to September 5, 2026. The choices we make today will shape the rhythm of tomorrow.
Figure 6. Cartoon image based on the news story of ice-fishers being rescued in Owen Sound, winter of 2026. Image generated using ChatGPT (OpenAI 2026).
For many of us, there is also a great sense of loss — of dependable winters, of the simple joy of skating outdoors, skiing through a silent winter landscape, drilling a hole and lowering a fishing line. We are losing the connection between us and the frozen lakes that once defined life here.
This is a story about how each of us, in our own way, will have to adapt to the new rhythm of the seasons. Many people and organizations are adapting to these new conditions. In our Grey Roots Museum exhibit, Local Stories: Changing Weather, we feature some of these stories.