May 22, 2026
Historic Snowfall in Grey County
By John Anderson, 2026
INTRODUCTION
Not long ago, winter in Grey County arrived like clockwork. Each December, cold air settled in, snow piled up, and the great inland seas of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay began to freeze. By mid-winter, people used the frozen landscape for many activities. Frozen winters were a special time to enjoy the great Canadian outdoors (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Historic snowfall in Toronto ON, circa early 20th Century. (blogTO.com)
Those winters are now mostly gone, and with them, a way of life that had shaped our region for generations. Families once counted on steady cold for skating, ice fishing, skiing, and even crossing the ice to visit friends and relatives.
The rhythm of the season was dependable — until the climate began to shift.
Since 1880, the five highest record snowfalls all occurred between 1977 and 1997.
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM
Lake Huron and Georgian Bay together form the second-largest surface area in the Great Lakes system (Figure 2). The total surface area is estimated at 59,570 square kilometers.
The Great Lakes system plays an important role in moderating our climate and can play a big role in our local weather. One example is lake-effect snow that creates what is known as The Snowbelt – those lands lying downwind of the Great Lakes that can get a lot of snow.
Figure 2: Satellite image of the Great Lakes system and areas of high lake-effect snow, the predominant wind direction (blue arrows) and the land areas most impacted by lake-effect snow (turquoise). (Image from Weather Network)
OBSERVING SNOW
Precipitation is measured each hour of every day throughout the year. When temperatures are freezing precipitation comes down as snow. Scientists have been measuring snow in Grey County for more than 140 years, beginning in 1880. Adding up the amount of snowfall each day over the winter season creates an annual index of snowfall. The winter season extends from November to the following May.
Annual snowfall doubled from 3 meters historically to 4 meters in the 1980s and 1990s.
HISTORIC SNOWFALL
Snowfall varied from year to year but the overall trend did not change from 1880 until the 1960s (Figure 3). During this period, snowfall averaged three meters. Then things changed as our annual snowfall steadily increased into the 1970s peaking through to the 1990s. Snowfall during this period averaged four meters; 33% higher than the previous eight decades. Between 1977 and 1997, we received the five largest snowfalls people living in Grey County had ever experienced. The record was set in 1977 at six meters of snowfall in a single season. Since those record-setting years, snowfall has been slowly declining but is still higher than historical levels.
Figure 3: Annual snowfall (blue squares) from 1880 to 2025. The smoothed trend of snowfall (green line, LOESS model) demonstrates the transition to higher snowfalls beginning in the 1970s. The five years of highest snowfall occurred over a twenty-year period, from 1977 to 1997 (red circles).
YEAR-TO-YEAR DIFFERENCES
The multi-year variability in annual snowfall over the historic ninety-year period, from 1880 to 1970, was 19%. During the 1970s through to the 1990s, variability increased to 27%. Since then, the variability in snowfall has averaged 22%. This is a normalized measure that allows us to compare variability fairly across periods with different average snowfall amounts (Figure 4).
One would think with rising temperatures we would get less snow; but it is not that simple!
Figure 4. Graphic image of snowfall variability increasing over time.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Since 1880, there were slow cycles of rising and falling temperatures and precipitation but overall, there was not systematic change in either. Since the 1970s, both temperature and precipitation have increased to levels never before experienced. One would think with rising temperatures we would get less snow. But the story is not that simple.
CLIMATE CHAOS
What is going on? For each one-degree Celsius increase in air temperature, the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture. In addition, as we experience declining ice cover on Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, there is more open water that increases winter evaporation into the atmosphere. In colder winters this extra moisture falls as snow; in warmer winters if falls as rain or mixed precipitation (Figure 5).
Figure 5. The dynamic relationship between temperature and precipitation in Grey County.
These dynamics drive the record high snowfalls some years but also the greater year-to-year variation in snowfall that we are now experiencing.
ADAPTING TO THE NEW REALITY
For many of us, there can be a great sense of loss. Loss — of dependable winters, of the simple joy of skating outdoors, skiing through a silent winter landscape, drilling a hole and lowering a fishing line. The connection between us and the frozen lands that once defined life here is changing.
For many of us, there is a great sense of loss of our cold dependable winters.
This is a story about how each of us, in our own way, will have to adapt to the new rhythm of the seasons. Many people and organizations are adapting to these new conditions. We invite you to explore their stories in our Grey Roots Museum exhibit, Local Stories: Changing Weather, part of the Wild Weather exhibition which runs from May 16, 2026 to September 5, 2026. By learning about our changing climate and engaging with local leaders, we can help protect the place we love and call home.
Figure 6. Cartoon image complaining about too much snow in a changing, warming climate. Image generated using ChatGPT (OpenAI 2026).